In 2000, Arizona Senator John McCain had what you might call a hard time in New York State. Polls showed an apparent lack of support for his candidacy among New York Republicans, where he consistently finished well behind then-Texas Governor George W. Bush. On top of that, he had to sue his way onto the ballot, unable or unwilling to endure the arduous task of collecting the required number of signatures in every Congressional district in the State. When the primary election finally came around, Bush defeated McCain 51-43 statewide on his way to an eventual victory over Vice President Al Gore.
At the time, both McCain and then-Staten Island Borough President Guy Molinari, who chaired McCain’s New York campaign, were sure they could pull a victory in New York State, though the odds were stacked high against them.
“I am confident of victory. I am very cognizant of the odds. With the support of Guy Molinari, we can win the state of New York,” said McCain upon receiving Molinari’s endorsement.
They were wrong. But things may have changed. At the end of March, the Arizona Senator was the keynote speaker at a packed-to-the-rafters rally for immigration reform in the heavily-Irish Woodlawn section of The Bronx. The greeting McCain received from the crowd—Republicans, Democrats and Independents all together—was not what you would expect to hear for a politician, but for a rock star.
They sang, they cheered, they even engaged in some traditional soccer chants for McCain. The crowd exploded for McCain when he walked into the room, and only stopped when he asked them to. Otherwise, they might have cheered all night.
That reaction illustrates just why McCain can do what no Republican presidential candidate has done since Ronald Reagan and win New York in 2008, so claims Charlie Szrom, director of the national movement to draft McCain for president in 2008 (www.mccainmovement.com). Headed into his senior year at Indiana University, Szrom formed the “Draft McCain” movement in April as a way to drum up support for the Senator’s likely presidential run. The all-volunteer group boasts members in 31 states including New York and regional coordinators in 11 of those states. Szrom says he hopes to have a New York director in the very near future.
“We’re fans of McCain, and we want to do something to put the man we feel is best suited for it into the White House in 2008,” said Szrom, adding that unlike most politicians, McCain does not guide his career on polling data, but makes pragmatic decisions on what he feels best serves the country and his own deep convictions. That practical streak will help McCain in New York, said Szrom, noting that one of the most liberal states in the union have handed Republican Governor George Pataki three straight victories, and that the largest liberal city in the United States has elected Republicans for mayor—Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg—four consecutive times. “New York is a great state for McCain,” said Szrom.
Victories by Pataki, Giuliani and Bloomberg are typically used as evidence by Republicans that their party is alive and well in New York. For Szrom, it represents the high level of sophistication of the average state voter.
“Voters in New York are more focused on issues, on what a candidate can offer, not just on their party line,” said Szrom. “John McCain appeals to a broad spectrum of voters, and he’ll appeal to New Yorkers in 2008.”
While the Republican majority in the state Senate shrinks every year, upstate Republican congressmen are fearing for their elected lives this cycle and the number of Republicans elected to local office in the city has shrunk to just a handful. There are zero elected Republicans in Manhattan and The Bronx, and the bulk of the City’s GOPers represent Staten Island. For all that success at the top of the ticket, why haven’t Republicans seen any real success at the bottom?
Conventional wisdom used to say that Republican power brokers, especially those in the city, failed to build the party for fear of what might happen. If new voters were registered in the Republican Party, they might eventually demand power of their own and threaten what power those leaders had. To keep their own hold on power, Republican leaders had to crush any attempt to build the party.
Scott Sala does not think this is the case. Sala is the founder of UrbanElephants.com, an Internet community dedicated to the reconstruction of the Republican Party across the city and the state. Rather than seeing a devious scheme to hold power by keeping the common man down, he thinks the Republican Party’s past failures in building a strong counterweight to the Democrats across the state has more to do with an inability to understand the nature of the grassroots.
“Many Republicans I know went to GOP events, tried to volunteer and got left hanging,” said Sala. “There didn’t seem to be a need for average folks who wanted to get involved. All you ever got were fundraiser letters.”
To counter that, Sala created his own grassroots movement, one designed to empower bloggers and other activists to use the Internet to rebuild the Republican Party from the ground up. “There were also so many factions that didn’t work together, so Urban Elephants was created with an idealistic aim to reach out to all Republicans, regardless of stripe,” said Sala.
One thing Sala feels has helped the Democratic Party grow to its current strength in New York is its willingness to accept primary battles for races of all sizes. While Republicans have shied away from the primary process for fear of its divisiveness, Democrats have endured them. Primaries energize the party’s base and get activists excited to participate in the electoral process, said Sala.
“I think the Democrats build their party by fighting—but openly in primaries,” said Sala. “It lets grassroots activists have a say. Essentially the GOP leaders rarely have primaries, and that leads to apathy as there is no real role for rank-and-file Republicans except on election day.”
So, what about a primary in 2008? Aside from McCain, both Giuliani and Pataki are also making serious overtures towards a presidential run. Could McCain pull out a victory on their home turf? Szrom says yes. He notes that while he admires Pataki and especially Giuliani for their service in office, they both lack the experience on national and world affairs that Republicans would prefer to see in their presidential candidates. “I think McCain is the type of person people want on a national stage, which is much different than a municipal stage,” said Szrom.
Sala also thinks that McCain has many strengths that would appeal to New York voters, and feels that the difference between McCain and Giuliani would depend on what voters were looking for in their president. “If America wants a hero and a strong, type-A personality, Rudy wins. If they want someone they believe is in the center to save the country from the extreme Left or Right, McCain may have the edge,” said Sala.
But could McCain take New York State in 2008? Probably not, says top Democratic consultant Joseph Mercurio of National Political Services. If Hillary Clinton were in the race, McCain would have a slim chance at best of winning the state, he said. Mercurio noted that Reagan’s victory in New York came at the height of conservative influence in the state, and that influence has dwindled ever since.
A key issue is abortion, said Mercurio, and recent Republican successes in New York have all revolved around pro-choice candidates. Pataki, Giuliani and Bloomberg are all pro-choice, and a pro-life candidate has not won a statewide race since Dennis Vacco became attorney general in 1994. And even then, Vacco was aided by an open-seat and a very liberal Democratic challenger. McCain is pro-life, and Mercurio felt that his stance on that issue might trump any other good feelings voters might have about him when the general election came around. “I can’t imagine a pro-life candidate winning statewide; it doesn’t even seem possible,” said Mercurio.
Mercurio is also sure that Giuliani would defeat McCain in a New York primary, and new evidence seems to back him up. A survey released last week by the Gallup Organization found that while 73 percent of national Republicans found Giuliani to be an acceptable Republican nominee for president, just 55 percent thought the same of McCain. A dismal 31 percent of Republicans found Pataki acceptable.
If voters are looking for a pro-choice Republican who can crossover to Democratic voters, the best choice might be Bloomberg. The mayor’s name has been bandied about in recent months as a serious candidate in 2008. Though he could never win a Republican primary, Mercurio thinks that Bloomberg would present a serious problem for both Republicans and Democrats if he ran as an independent. In a match-up between Bloomberg, Giuliani and Clinton, Mercurio felt that the former first lady would win New York. Substitute McCain for Giuliani and he thinks either Clinton or Bloomberg could take the state. Though McCain has mass appeal, that appeal varies when you cross state lines.
“McCain does better among Democrats and Independents than Clinton does among Republicans and Independents, that’s certain,” said Mercurio. “But you have to look state by state.”
Mercurio thinks that there is a “better than even” chance Bloomberg will run in 2008, and that he would be a serious contender. He would be well-financed, and unlike previous third-party candidates, he would have an actual resume as an elected official. On the opposite end, Sala thinks that Bloomberg has no chance to win in 2008, and that he could better serve the country as a philanthropist.
“I don’t see the pieces there at this stage,” said Sala. “Obviously he has money, but nationally the GOP isn’t in need of that as they were here in New York City. He’s governed well, but has not stood out enough to sum up his terms in a few sound bites.”
But if McCain or Giuliani were to run, Mercurio does not think that Bloomberg would even bother with a race at all. It would take a traditionally conservative Republican candidate, such as Tennessee Senator Dr. Bill Frist or Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, combined with a Democratic nominee he did not care for, to drag the mayor into the race. And since Clinton and Bloomberg have such a great relationship, a seat on the sidelines in 2008 might be his most logical choice. “He won’t run against Giuliani or McCain,” said Mercurio. “I believe he prefers a moderate Republican to a moderate Democrat, especially to a more left-leaning Democrat like [Massachusetts Senator John] Kerry.”
But Mercurio is not convinced that McCain is a moderate at all and thinks he is only perceived as such because he takes some stands against his party’s base on high-profile issues, like campaign finance laws and immigration reform. “John McCain is more conservative than people think,” said Mercurio.
Could that conservatism play in New York? Szrom thinks it will. And while he understands that New Yorkers might have problems with McCain on some issues, he urged them to embrace the total package when 2008 rolls around and help McCain follow in the Gipper’s footsteps with a statewide Republican victory.
“He’s more than one issue,” said Szrom. “When people see the whole package, they tend to agree with McCain and what he has to offer.” n
