After dispatching Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi by 60 points on Sept. 12th Democratic Primary for governor, Attorney General Eliot Spitzer now stands poised to become the first Democrat to hold the governor’s mansion since Mario Cuomo. The only man standing in his way is the former Assembly Minority Leader John Faso, who holds the Republican and Conservative ballot lines. For tax cutters, Republican provisional hires and Wall Street executives, Faso is the last best hope that a Spitzer reign might be beaten back, however unlikely that may seem.

The narrative of the race so far has been Spitzer’s ridiculously high polling numbers. If opinion polls are taken at face value, the Republican won’t have to worry about forming a “Democrats for Faso” chapter anytime soon, since so few members of his own party appear to support him anyway. Spitzer polls against Suozzi were just slightly off base, predicting an 80-point win and only delivering on 60. 

But Faso is not giving up without a fight. Last week, he launched a new campaign website, www.spitzerspending.com, which allows users to estimate just how much their taxes will rise if Spitzer assumes control of Albany. The site is a clear play to the middle-class voter. Faso’s campaign surmises that Spitzer has demanded more than $53 billion in new spending, if we are to take his campaign promises at face value. A married individual with two kids, making a modest $40,000 a year, would have to chip in $433 more in taxes each year.

Will this argument play in the City? Probably not. Though lower taxes are always at the top of the list, Spitzer currently enjoys cult-like approval ratings in the heavily Democratic five boroughs that it is a wonder if any attack Faso throws out there will stick. Last week, it was revealed that Spitzer had lied about touring the childhood school of State Senator David Paterson, his selection for lieutenant governor. In a television ad, Spitzer said he had recently toured the school, pointedly comparing its hallways, named Honesty Road and Trustworthy Turnpike, to his journey to Albany. “It seems that when Mr. Spitzer came to Honesty Road he missed the turn because he was too focused on another street ahead: Ambition Avenue. If we can’t take Mr. Spitzer’s word about touring a school, how can we take him at his word that he won’t raise taxes?” said Faso spokesperson Susan Del Percio. Other than your typical wonks, nobody in the City blinked. 

Faso’s best chance at electoral success, at least to drive down Spitzer’s numbers, is to
take his case to the
voters Upstate. Albany politicians, especially Democrats, have taken a beating over the years for their apparent lack of care for the unique problems the northern counties face, a problem developed in part by the City’s heavy Democratic base and the concentration of Republicans Upstate. At no time was this disconnect clearer than during the only debate between Spitzer and Suozzi. The subject of Upstate only came up once, and the question seemed forced, as if to make sure that the Democrats did not ignore it altogether. Even the editorial boards of newspapers across the state, most of whom will endorse Spitzer anyway, even saw the disparity, and called on the two candidates to host more debates. 

Faso has pounced on this, and will sing high to the heavens for the rest of the campaign that Spitzer does not care about anything north of the Bronx County line. After, Spitzer came out against a plan endorsed by the chambers of commerce of multiple Upstate counties that would reduce the cost of government while providing them tax relief. “Throughout this campaign, Mr. Spitzer has tried to be all things to all people and we all know that is impossible,” said Faso. “Now, when he is backed into a corner and forced to explain his position on specific proposals, the real Eliot Spitzer is exposed. He has abandoned the exact reforms we need to turn the Upstate economy around. There is no question that he is going to raise taxes and reject cost-saving reforms that are opposed by Albany special interests.” 

Can this tactic work? Maybe. Upstate voters have seen their economy shrink over the past few decades, and will no doubt embrace the message of tax cut after tax cut after tax cut. But while Upstate has lost its economy, it has also lost much of its population. Will there even be enough people left to care about Upstate’s economy and Faso’s message? Statistics say no.