In October, many Democrats saw their biggest dreams for the future begin to be fulfilled. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama intimated that he may decide to run for president in 2008 after all, having previously denied any interest in the position.
“Given the responses that I’ve been getting over the last several months, I have thought about the possibility, but I have not thought about it with the seriousness and depth that I think is required,” Obama said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” two weeks ago. “After November 7th, I’ll sit down and consider it, and if at some point I change my mind, I will make a public announcement, and everybody will be able to go at me.”
Obama is a bright, articulate man, well-spoken, and he possesses a genuine desire to work with both sides of the aisle to get things done. To top it off, Obama is biracial, the product of a black father and a white mother. A 2008 campaign by Obama would represent a shift away from politics as usual, say the pundits. This would be a new era, an era of inclusion.
Other potential candidacies of inclusion and hope are popping up in both parties, with Sen. Hillary Clinton leading the charge to be the first woman to hold the office. Republican Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would not only vie to be the first woman, but the first African-American to hold the office as well. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, also a Republican, is looking to be the first Mormon leader of the free world.
Indeed, if all of this were to pan out as planned, America would be set to elect the most diverse president it has ever seen, be it for reasons of race, gender or creed. But is America ready? The country’s electoral history would seem to state otherwise. Across America, voters have not been truly tested regarding the question of race and gender in their candidates, with most African-American and female candidates representing more of a quixotic run for the seat than a serious challenge, such as the 2004 candidacies of Rev. Al Sharpton and former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun. Obama, Rice and Clinton would not fall into this category.
But does anything indicate that any of them might actually win? The Christian right is already salivating at the thought of the former First Lady making her way through a Democratic primary and facing whoever the Republican nominee might be. For years, the Clinton family has served as the chief boogeymen for Republican leaders, and the right has so worked up its base for more than a decade that many are chomping at the bit to vote against Sen. Clinton when the time comes. She might be passable in the Northeast, but will southern voters, Democrats and Republicans alike, ever give Sen. Clinton a chance?
Sen. Clinton’s problems might not be that she’s a woman, but that she’s a Clinton. In February, a CBS/New York Times poll found that 55 percent of Americans think the nation is ready for a woman president and found that 92 percent of Americans would vote for a woman from their party if they felt she was qualified. Still, no one expects Sen. Clinton to win a general election, and many Democrats privately worry if she would be too easy for the right Republican, such as Arizona Sen. John McCain, to trounce in November. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid has even reportedly offered Clinton a top Senate leadership position if she abandons her plans for the White House.
So where would that leave Obama? An inspiring figure, he does not have a history with the right like Sen. Clinton, and he has some credibility on conservative issues, having been a chief sponsor of several bills designed to eliminate so-called “pork barrel” spending. But others have noticed the drawbacks of an Obama candidacy, specifically his lack of legislative experience and his less than impressive senatorial victory. Sure, Obama won a more conservative Midwest state, but his Republican opponent Jack Ryan was dogged by a sex scandal. When the Illinois Republican Party flirted with the idea of running former Chicago Bears coach Mike Ditka, polls indicated that voters would be ready to send the football legend to Washington over Obama, despite his lack of any legislative experience whatsoever. Obama won, but was he really tested?
Romney has his own set of problems, namely that religious leaders who control great blocks of the party’s voters are not convinced that a Mormon could represent their interests. In early October, Focus on the Family leader James Dobson, a key figure amongst the evangelical right, expressed those reservations clearly, telling syndicated radio host Laura Ingraham that many of his own followers might have a problem pulling the lever for him.
“I don’t believe that conservative Christians in large numbers will vote for a Mormon, but that remains to be seen, I guess,” Dobson told Ingraham. He did praise Romney’s values, but the message was clear: Romney is not one of us and we would be hesitant to back him, no matter how qualified a candidate he may be.
If Dobson can’t bring himself to support a like-minded Republican simply on the basis of faith, could his followers ever support an African-American or mixed-race candidate like Rice or Obama, respectively, for the nation’s top office? The test case for a black president might be playing out in Tennessee right now, where the Democrats are running Rep. Harold Ford against Bob Corker for the state’s open seat. Ford is African-American and very conservative on many issues. But despite his conservative credibility, and this being an awful year for Republicans nationwide, Ford is running behind Corker and his campaign seems to be imploding. Republican voters seem to be unwilling to back Ford, even under the most perfect circumstances.
As for Obama, even former President Bill Clinton has publicly cautioned him about running in 2008, fearing that it might be too early for the Senator to try for the highest office. The former president may have selfish reasons for keeping Obama out of the race, since it’s common knowledge that his wife wants to run this time around. But maybe the smartest political mind the Democrats have seen in recent memory knows something that Obama, Rice, Romney and even his own wife might have to learn the hard way in 2008: When it comes to electing a more diverse president, America might not be ready to take that step.
