By John DeSio

We are told that in 2009 the stage will be set for the ascent of many City Council members into higher office. Term limits, which helped to bring many of them to office in the first place, will force many of them out of office that same year. Other municipal positions across the City will also face the consequences of those same term limit laws in 2009, as well. According to those close to the characters that occupy the City Council chambers, the entire City will be ripe for the picking when the bulk of the City Council goes looking for work in 2009.

In Queens, Council Member Melinda Katz has long been touted as the next borough president. Her borough colleague, David Weprin, will tell you himself that he is the logical choice to be the next comptroller since he chairs the Council’s powerful finance committee. Michael McMahon of Staten Island reportedly declined an offer to run for Congress against Republican Vito Fossella this year because he is entirely focused on securing the borough presidency in 2009. Eric Gioia, John Liu, David Yassky, Tony Avella, Joel Rivera and Leroy Comrie are among the other Council names mentioned for higher office, with the City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leading the way as possibly the next mayor.
   
When you press City Hall insiders on just why these members, or any other members of the City Council, have the fast track to higher office, the answer will typically focus on two things: so-and-so Council Member raises a lot of money, and so-and-so Council Member goes to a lot of events outside of their own district. Policy is hardly ever mentioned except in the case of Avella, who has raised his own Citywide profile with renegade, for-the-people stands on issues like overturning term limits and accepting a pay raise.

That Quinn thinks she could be Mayor is no surprise. She is a very bright, knowledgeable politician who has presented herself as a practical dealmaker who takes very good care of those who stay loyal to her cause. Such loyalty will likely lead to a great deal of endorsements from her Council colleagues, much like it did in 2005 when Quinn’s predecessor, Gifford Miller, used his funding power and fear of disapproval to more or less force many City Council members into supporting his ultimately abysmal run for Mayor.

Miller’s predecessor, Peter Vallone, ran for mayor himself in 2001, the first year that term limits caused a mass exodus to higher office. Vallone was a giant compared to Miller and Quinn, and even he could do no better that third in a four-way primary. 2001 was something of a bloodbath when it came to the fortunes of the term-limited City Council members. Just two Council Members, Helen Marshall of Queens and Adolfo Carrion of The Bronx, were successful in their quest to move up. Marshall was aided by the support of the legendary Queens power broker Tom Manton, who managed the Queens Democratic organization so well that it earned a reputation as the most powerful in the State, if not one of the most powerful in the nation. And Carrion was greatly aided by his two opponents, a white City Councilwoman June Eisland, running in a largely minority borough and the other an extremely ethically challenged State Senator, Pedro  Espada, whose political career has been more about the sideshow that producing results.

Everywhere else, City Council Members fell and fell hard. In addition to Vallone’s loss, Herbert Berman fell to Bill Thompson in the race for comptroller while a virtual unknown in Betsy Gotbaum took the public advocate seat over a collection of candidates that included Council Members Stephen DiBrienza and Kathryn Freed. Kenneth Fisher finished last in the three-way race for Brooklyn Borough President, well behind eventual winner Marty Markowitz. Perhaps the most embarrassing defeat took place in Staten Island, where a well-liked Jerome X. “Jay” O’Donovan, a popular Democrat who represented the Island’s north shore, could not best Republican/Conservative candidate Jim Molinaro, despite Molinaro’s lack of public profile and the presence of a third-party candidate that should have drained more votes from the Republican.

Even the quickest glance at the history of the City Council should give pause to any pundit or other insider professing the assured victory of their candidate. Though Council Members do ascend to higher positions within the Council itself, the only election needed to win to take those positions occurs behind closed doors and with zero input from the community-at-large. Quinn is certainly a trailblazer as the first woman, and the first lesbian, to hold the role of Speaker. But Quinn only had to convince 26 of her colleagues to take that job. When members of the City Council step outside of their district and aim for higher ground, the result, more often than not, is failure.