In 2006 the sun shone in Flushing every day, every single grounder was run out, soda fountains at Shea dispensed liquid gold, the Mets players and coaching staff joined hands in a circle before each game to sing a bilingual version of “Kumbaya,” and all of their relief pitchers were reliable.
So, yes, the Mets have crashed back to earth. Even before they were swept by the Phillies in August and again this past weekend, before they lost embarrassingly to the Washington Nationals, before they walked the ballpark and committed 10 errors in two days to cut their lead to 2.5 games, they’d had a summer of high highs and low lows.
Fans are beginning to show signs of panic (“take this free Bucket Hat and shove it up your ass, Mota!”). Willie Randolph is no longer invulnerable, and when dealing with clusters of reporters—never one of his favorite tasks even at the best of times—he wears a facial expression similar to mine when cleaning up after my dog. New York’s previously idyllic clubhouse has revealed a few minor strains and abrasions. But despite it all, they are still one of the best teams in the NL, and they are very likely going to win their division. Not that you’d know it to look at them now.
Although Mets fans are justly famous for expecting soul-crushing disaster at all times, expectations were high this spring. This year’s record would have been greeted cheerfully after 2005, but people expect more now; last year at this time, the Mets had already clinched.
“Personally, winning your division is winning the division, whether it’s by 10 games or four and a half games,” David Wright explained to me on Saturday—after a loss that was simply painful, in contrast to the next two, which would be excruciating. “I think there is that standard out there, but like I said at the beginning of the year, every team in this division got better during the off-season. And we got better, so—it’s a tough division. The Braves are extremely tough, the Phillies are extremely tough. So we knew going into the season that it wasn’t going to be like last year when we could coast into the finish line.” Well, I’m not sure the Marlins actually got better, but Wright’s point is well taken. No team’s existence can remain as charmed as New York’s was in 2006.
The Mets, unable to explain their recent fiascos, alternate between angry concern and determined optimism. Carlos Beltran, after the Phillies sweep, was asked if he still felt confident. His reply: “We’re in first place, my man. I don’t know what you’re talking about. We’re in first place, they’re in second place… I say we’ll be fine.” This is not what fans want to hear—he gets paid tens of millions to be that calm, and we tear our hair out for free?—but it’s hard to argue.
I don’t know who Jimmy Rollins had to pray or sell his soul to in order to achieve Philadelphia’s staggering dominance of New York over the last two months, but his team, thanks to earlier injuries and one of the worst bullpens outside Tampa Bay, is still in a very difficult position. The Phillies have a great offense, but the third-worst ERA in the National League (above only the Marlins and Reds); in the course of eking out a win Monday night, they managed to blow an 11-run lead against St. Louis. The Mets’ relievers have certainly had their share of speed bumps—and in the case of Guillermo Mota, massive axle-destroying potholes—but surely you’d rather take your chances with Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano than Geoff Geary and Antonio Alfonseco.
Nothing about the Mets’ recent play inspires pride, or confidence, or the ability to watch replays without salting your eyes. But you have to be a pretty lousy team to lose a three-game lead in a week and a half while exclusively playing the Marlins and Nationals, and the Mets aren’t anywhere near that lousy. Their offense is excellent and their starting pitching is, Brian Lawrence aside, very solid; this is especially true since, in the Mets’ one massive advantage over their September 2006 equivalents, they’ve gotten Pedro Martinez back from shoulder surgery. Martinez is still pitching somewhat gingerly, and will be, he says, not only all of this year but most of next as well; as he puts it, he’s still “getting his feet wet.” Even so, he’s a match for almost any team in the league if he has his control (including the mighty Phillies, who he held to one run over six impressive innings on Saturday), and he knows it: “If I stay healthy, in a big series game, anybody could just get panicked and maybe I will sneak in six or seven innings—who knows. I just want to be able to be out there for the team, and represent my team, and take the mound as a leader.”
According to Baseball Prospectus’s Playoff Odds Report, the Mets still have better than a 95 percent chance of playing in October. After that? Well, you may not savor the idea of Guillermo Mota coming in to hold a slim lead in an elimination game. But if Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver could turn into aces and shut down the most powerful offense in the league last fall, then I say anything’s possible.
