Who Will Choose Pro-Choice Rudy?

The conventional wisdom says that Rudy Giuliani could never escape from the Republican primary process because his party's conservative base would never accept such a socially liberal nominee. Philip Klinkner, James S. Sherman Associate Professor of Government at upstate HamiltonCollege has run the numbers, and cannot see anyway that a pro-choice Giuliani would be helpful in his  presidential primary bid.

Klinkner analyzed data from the 2004 National Annenberg Election Survey to determine the abortion attitudes of Republican primary voters. "When asked whether they wanted to ban all abortions, more than one third strongly supported doing so and another 9 percent were somewhat favorable to this most extreme anti-abortion position. On the less extreme position of making abortions more difficult, a clear majority of Republican primary voters favored doing so, with nearly half strongly in favor," said Klinkner.

Klinkner does note that since the 2004 Republican primary was uncontested it is likely that fewer moderate and more independent leaning Republicans made their way to the polls, and that Giuliani could prove victorious should he convince those Republicans to get out and vote.

"Nonetheless, Giuliani will have a very hard time in a head-to-head contest with a pro-life candidate," said Klinkner.